High, Wide And Prognosticated

I cannot blame those who will deride me for jumping the gun here, as the weekend isn't even over yet - but more disconcerting is my alarming lack of faith in my own club. Arsenal's cogent demolition of Everton will have had many betting men scrambling for their league prediction receipts in an effort to alter them before it's too late, and though Manchester City's victory over Blackburn was by no means a rout, there was enough evidence in the performance to suggest that are a genuine threat to the "top four" clubs. A simple one-time emphatic result against Birmingham today will not be enough to allay my doubts about their solidarity, and I refuse to give credence to the claim that they are in a strong enough position at the moment, to take the title this season.

Whilst I correct in my assertion that Ronaldo's departure from Old Trafford was set to have been accomplished by, at the very latest, today, I was similarly flawed in my prediction that Chelsea would emerge victorious in their campaign last season. Do I write off United too soon? Possibly, but Ronaldo will be missed sorely, assuredly not for his attitude, but for his prolific strike rate.

Most of us know about his groundbreaking performance during the 07/08 season, when he struck over 30 times in the league. Last time out wasn't as spectacular, but he still finished as second top scorer with 18 goals. Michael Owen, in comparison, as a full-fledged forward, and not a winger, was on the scoresheet 10 times less than this, whilst Antonio Valencia, the man brought in as a direct replacement for Ronaldo, only hit the back of the net 3 times. Granted, Owen has had his share of injury woes over the years, so he must be past that by now, right? Well, I don't see why that would be the case at all; Kieron Dyer, yesterday, only appeared in his second game in 2 years for the Hammers. If a player were to gripe about how they've been cruelly blighted by injury, on that front they need not engage in competition with Dyer, whose career has been littered by lengthy lay-offs.

Owen is a proven goal scorer, but I fear that his perpetual disability will attract more attention this year than his promulgated exceptional form. And Valencia's assist contribution will have to be gargantuan to make up the lost goals through other players.

What the MotD coverage filled me in on was the turmoil of Fratton Park. Portsmouth are in disarray, and look set for a long, difficult season. They've lost Defoe, they've lost Johnson, they've lost Crouch, and they've lost their first league game, with Piquionne, a French striker drafted in to seal the void in goals elsewhere, proving mostly unconvincing. Kanu long ago fell out of general favour, and Nugent still couldn't hit a tree if he were standing in a forest; you feel that David James will have to keep his team in with a fighting chance of staying up by staving off a fusillade of shots at goal until May. But James is no deity, and he will be peppered repeatedly week in, week out. An out-of-form James will all but assure Pompey's relegation.

The three promoted sides will all struggle, as they usually do, with Wolves best placed to decide their own fate. The Serbian Milijas looks a shrewd acquisition, and they are not short on strikers; Kevin Doyle, in particular, has performed well at this level before, with Reading. Hull will, once again, be dragged into a relegation dog-fight, but perhaps lasting for the duration of the season this time. As for Everton...well, regardless of whether they lose Lescott, the squad is paper-thin at the best of times; a wave of impairments will sink their Champions League aspirations.

My presumptions about the table last season proved not to be prophetic; 0 of 3 supposed teams were relegated, the champions were called incorrectly, and egregious mistakes could be seen in the placement of clubs like Newcastle United and Everton. Never fear; this season is likely to herald fewer surprises, and I finally feel confident about Wigan maintaining their Premier league status for a further - something I have not felt ever since they came up.

1. Chelsea
2. Liverpool
3. Manchester United
4. Arsenal
5. Manchester City
6. Tottenham Hotspur
7. Everton
   
8. Sunderland
   
9. Wigan Athletic
   
10. Fulham
    
11. West Ham United
    
12. Aston Villa
    
13. Blackburn Rovers
    
14. Stoke City
    
15. Bolton Wanderers
    
16. Wolverhampton Wanderers
    
17. Birmingham City
    
18. Hull City
    
19. Portsmouth
20. Burnley

Ok, so you may be looking at that table and thinking "Manchester United in 3rd?! Are you completely off your rocker?!", and you'd be right; not only am I going against the grain by voting against my own team, but I am discrediting their form over the past three years, which is insane. Second would be an insult, third is plain ludicrous. But United rode their luck a fair bit last time out, and are overdue for some serious misfortune. They were on a par with Chelsea in 08/09, with the same number of goals scored and conceded, yet finished 7 points ahead of them.

Realistically, I think this is the first season where the "top four" could finish in any order. Arsenal have Arshavin available to them for the whole season, and Eduardo is back, and already scoring goals. Liverpool's internal conflict seems to be over, and Torres looks hungry for more goals than ever. And Chelsea have now quelled the fire in Didier Drogba's stomach, convincing him to stay on at the club. To be frank, you can never seriously write United off. But City will push these four clubs the whole way, eagerly envisaging the slip-up of one of them.

The other big surprise on that table is probably Sunderland. Only 2 places - and 2 points - above Newcastle in the drop zone last season, I am excited at the prospect of two "phoenix" forwards; two players that fell out of form at separate clubs; only to be rejuvenated when united. Previously, this could apply to players that performed well when apart, but simply phenomenally when together; examples of this would be the partnerships of Dimitar Berbatov and Robbie Keane at Spurs, or the 90s camaraderie of Man Utd pairing Andy Cole and Dwight Yorke. Here, as pointed out by MotD, Kenwyne Jones and Darren Bent look capable of replicating such form to propel Sunderland up the table. Judgement made too soon? We shall see...Sunderland could very well be the surprise package of the season.

As for Hull, I didn't believe they could stay up last year before the season began, but I desperately wanted them to prove me wrong. Which they did; dramatically at first, until their true form kicked in at the turn of the year. A plucky performance against Chelsea, which earned no points, would appear to be the best they can hope for this year - a dogmatically hard work ethic with no reward - and I am resigned into praying for them without conviction.

The season just kicked off, and I'm already zealously awaiting the final whistle.